Amid global changes, the EU is forced to strike a balance between ensuring reliable energy supply, maintaining affordable energy prices, and adhering to its declared green agenda, which is viewed as a tool for securing energy independence and reducing reliance on external suppliers.
Considering gas import dependence as a serious risk, the EU continues to sharply and painfully reduce gas-based power generation—its volume decreased by 21% compared to 2021, and its share in the energy mix declined from 19% to 15.7%. This negatively affects not only households but, above all, industries, where high energy costs directly threaten production costs and, consequently, competitiveness.
The cessation of Russian gas transit through Ukraine went relatively smoothly, causing only a short-term price surge (thanks to Gazprom’s share in European imports dropping to 6% and underground storage facilities being 53.6% full). However, dependence persists—not only Hungary and Slovakia, which are often mentioned, continue to buy Russian gas, but also several stronger European economies (though now in the form of LNG rather than pipeline gas).
An immediate rejection of these supplies is impossible, but the EU has set this as a goal, previously announcing 2027 as the target year. Meanwhile, pragmatic economic logic drives the search for alternative supply routes and geographic diversification. Turkey’s proposal to become a gas hub for Europe, leveraging alternative routes through its territory, could prove useful in this regard.
Europe is betting on renewable energy sources (RES), but their generation is uneven. To address this issue, the EU is expanding storage capacities, expected to increase fivefold to 50 GW by 2030 (with a record 3.7 GW added in 2024). However, this remains insufficient to balance the grid.
Moreover, the growing electricity demand from data centers will add further pressure on energy systems. In the global AI technology race, energy supply for this sector could become a bottleneck and a risk to competitiveness.
Another challenge is maintaining energy connectivity, which is critical for the stability of Europe’s energy sector and economy. Lithuania has estimated the cost of protecting underwater cables in the Baltic Sea at €32-34 million and is counting on EU support. The exit of the Baltic states from the BRELL energy ring (connecting them with Russia and Belarus), which led to a sharp spike in electricity prices on the Nord Pool exchange, has once again exposed the vulnerabilities of Europe’s peripheral energy systems.
Additionally, there is no unity on energy policy within Europe. Norway’s Equinor has scaled back its renewable energy goals and is refocusing on oil and gas, impacting its energy partnership with the EU. At the same time, Switzerland rejected stricter climate measures in a referendum, reflecting growing public concerns about the economic costs of the transition. Some industrial enterprises are also revising their green strategies—Porsche, for instance, is bringing back internal combustion engine vehicles, reducing its focus on electric cars.
It is likely that the contradiction between energy independence and economic growth will remain the main challenge for Europe, further complicated by the U.S.’s active role in reshaping the global energy landscape. Since the EU cannot immediately free itself from Russian energy resources, it will continue to seek alternative supply chains, with Kazakhstan potentially benefiting as a notable player in the oil market.
The EU will not abandon its green agenda, and a sound long-term strategy for other states, including those in Central Asia, would be to avoid reacting hastily to market fluctuations. Instead, they should adapt their strategic priorities for transitioning to a green economy while maintaining energy security in the short term.
In Europe, we will see fragmented relaxations of energy transition policies by individual actors. Some European countries may also reconsider their stance on nuclear energy, which today appears to be a promising low-carbon source, despite known environmental and safety concerns. An increasing number of countries, including Kazakhstan, are pursuing nuclear power development as a guarantee for meeting growing energy demands.
The European Union will mitigate the difficulties of the energy transition by maintaining investments in energy connectivity, grid regulations, storage systems, energy efficiency, and other technologies. This approach remains the only viable solution for Central Asian nations as well, enabling them not only to meet international commitments on carbon neutrality but also to find new technological drivers for economic growth.
Maria Stepanova, Expert at the Heartland Center for Sustainable Development and Green Energy
